Using the Single Detection Theory analytic methods described in detail in this Playoff Predictability, D.C. United and MLS Stats post from 2014 I tried to predict the teams that would qualify for playoffs based on their position after every team played 10 games.
Track Record
2011: 8 of 10
2012: 9 of 10
2013: 8 of 10
Prediction
This year the playoff teams are likely to be:
E.C.: Philadelphia, Montreal, Toronto, New York City, Orlando, New Jersey
W.C.: Colorado, Los Angeles, Salt Lake, Dallas, San Jose, Kansas City
DC United
Ugh. It's not looking good. In the previous two years that I did this analysis DC United was predicted to make the playoffs and they did. This year DC United is on the outside looking in. But just barely. They lose out on tie breakers to NJ (At 10 games NJ had more wins than DC). DC United is sitting on 10 points while last year at this point they had 21 points. But as well can all see they've changed their style and some key players. So maybe this is just growing pains. And maybe Rolfe and Espindola will learn to play again. Plus there's about to be the return of Hamid and Hope.
Context
Fun Fact: Last year 11 of 12 teams were correctly predicted to make the playoffs. Portland was the one team that was predicted to not make the playoffs. San Jose, who didn't qualify, were above them by 1 point. So, There's a chance for DC.
The Eastern Conference is pretty close in terms of points. Tied at the top of the East is Philly at 15 points; beating out Montreal on tie breakers. The last predicted playoffs team is NJ with 10 points. They too win out on tie breakers over DC United, Columbus, and New England. Even Chicago, which at the time of writing this is last at 7 points can tie NJ's point total as Chicago is the only team in the league to not have played 10 games. However, Chicago can't pass NJ on tie breakers so it's irrelevant to this post.
The Western Conference has a greater distribution of points and with most their playoff teams having points totals greater than most of the Eastern Conference. Last year the conferences had similar point distributions even at this point in the season. We'll see how that shakes out. San Jose faded last year while Portland got hot. Maybe Colorado returns to their true form but it would be a real collapse at this point, even worse than DC United's collapse last season.
The 2011-2014 predictions and analyses were based on 10 teams making the playoffs. Starting in 2015 12 teams made the playoffs. Last year I thought this would decrease the SDT analysis' effectiveness. It seemed to only improve. But that is only one year. This is all really about the stability of the teams within a year. There looks to be a lot of dynamic changes but that seems mostly to due with the ranging number of games teams play at any given point (Even now it ranges from 9 to 13 games played). Maybe that stability continues as a greater number (and percentage) of teams make the playoffs and shifts in quality (both player and coach) or maybe it becomes more unpredictable.
Actual Rankings After 10 Games
EC
PHL 15pts (4-3-3) 3 14
MTL 15pts (4-3-3) 2 17
TFC 14pts (4-4-2) 2 13
NYC 13pts (3-3-4) 0 15
ORL 11pts (2-2-6) 1 17
NJR 10pts (3-6-1) -5 13
DCU 10pts (2-4-4) -2 11
CLB 10pts (2-4-4) -3 12
NER 10pts (1-2-7) -5 11
CHI* 7pts (1-5-4) -5 8**
*Chicago sits at 9 games played (**EDIT: now for their 10 games)
WC
COL 20pts (6-2-2) 5 13
LAG 19pts (5-1-4) 12 24
RSL 17pts (5-3-2) 0 14
FCD 17pts (5-3-2) -2 15
SJE 15pts (4-3-3) -1 12
SKC 14pts (4-4-2) 1 11
SEA 13pts (4-5-1) -2 10
VAN 11pts (3-5-2) -3 12
POR 10pts (3-4-3) -3 15
HOU 8pts (2-6-2) -2 17
Tie Breaker Order:
Number of wins, then Goal Differential, then Goals For
