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Race for the MLS Playoffs - Week 26

A much-needed vacation kept me from showering these weekly updates with unbridled optimism last Sunday, but even following D.C. United’s latest loss to the Metros, they find themselves in a great position in the MLS playoff race. Nearly everything else has gone United’s way over the past few weeks, giving them a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs (as of Sunday morning). That number will drop somewhat after Sunday’s defeat, but United are still in a good position to take one of the final playoff spots in the East.

Club Pts PPG GP (Home)
Atlanta 54 2.08 26 (14)
Metros 52 2 26 (13)
NYCFC 48 1.85 26 (13)
Columbus 40 1.54 26 (13)
Philadelphia 36 1.44 25 (13)
Montreal 33 1.22 27 (13)
New England 29 1.16 25 (13)
D.C. United 27 1.17 23 (8)
Toronto 27 1.08 25 (12)
Chicago 24 0.89 27 (14)
Orlando 23 0.92 25 (13)

United fell behind Montreal on points per game after Sunday’s loss, but they still hold a sizeable edge over the Impact in most projections because of the number of home games they still have remaining. D.C. only have to leave Audi Field twice more this season, and one of those matches is against the Chicago Fire on the last day of the season. With the Fire well out of the playoff race, D.C. will be the much more motivated side (if their playoff hopes come down to the wire).

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, though. Here’s how things played out last week.

Top of the East

Atlanta: W, 2-1 vs. ORL
Metros: W, 1-0 vs. DC; D, 1-1 @ NYCFC (Wed.)
NYCFC: D, 1-1 vs. NYRB
Columbus: D, 1-1 @ CHI (Thu.)

Philadelphia Union

This week: W, 1-0 vs. NE
Last five: W-W-W-L-W
Next five: @ DC, @ ORL, vs. MTL, @ SEA, vs. SKC

The Union have taken control of the No. 5 spot in the East with wins in their last three league games, and 15 points taken in their last seven matches. They have a U.S. Open Cup Final looming in the middle of a busy late September slate, but the cushion they have built over the past few weeks should help them withstand a tough road schedule over the final two months of the season. Their next three matches are against Eastern Conference foes, and will go a long way in determining how stressful (or stress-free) their late-season run will be.

Montreal Impact

This week: L, 1-3 @ TOR
Last five: L-W-D-D-L
Next five: vs. NYRB, @ PHI, vs. NYCFC, @ DC, vs. CREW

The Impact haven’t been great lately, with just one win in their last six matches and zero wins against anyone of note since late June. However, they have done enough away from home to keep themselves above the red line for the moment. They don’t have as many matches remaining as most clubs, and the ones they do have are tough (both New York clubs, Columbus, and Toronto). The road matches will matter too, especially given their poor record away from Stade Saputo. All seven of their remaining games are against Eastern Conference foes.

New England Revolution

This week: L, 0-1 @ PHI
Last five: L-L-L-D-L
Next five: vs. POR, @ NYC, @ LAFC, vs. CHI, @ TOR

The Revs have lost five of their last six matches, and haven’t won a game since their June 30 victory over D.C. United. Worse yet, things only get tougher for New England from here. They play their next three games against teams above the playoff line, though all three (Portland especially) have fallen off their respective torrid paces recently. Still, the Revs will regret all the points they have dropped recently, including three in a row against the teams around them in the East standings. Their four remaining home matches are manageable, but they will need to figure out a way to get results on the road (where they have just one win this season) to move back up the table.

D.C United

This week: L, 0-1 @NYRB
Last five: L-W-W-W-D
Next five: vs. PHI, vs. ATL, @ NYCFC, vs. MIN, vs. NYRB

Sunday’s loss to the Metros takes a little bit of the shine off of D.C. United’s nine-point week, but they are still in as good of a position as we could have hoped for earlier this season. United have nine of their final 11 games at home, starting with two games next week against Philadelphia and Atlanta. Beating the Union would be a bit more helpful than taking out the Five Stripes next Sunday, but points are points this week. If United can keep winning at home, their last two road matches won’t matter much.

Toronto FC

This week: W, 3-1 vs. MTL
Last five: W-D-L-D-W
Next five: @ POR, vs. LAFC, vs. LAG, @ NYRB, vs. NE

Toronto put up a three-spot on Montreal in just half an hour on Saturday, and all but shut the door from there in an easy win. This was standard operating procedure for them in 2017, but these types of wins have been much harder to come by in 2018. Toronto is still hanging on the periphery of the playoff race, but their margin for error is razor slim at this point. Tough road matches against Portland, the Metros, D.C. United, and Montreal will determine if they can weasel their way back into the playoffs. If they do find a way above the playoff line, this will be a team no one wants to play in November.

Chicago Fire

This week: D, 1-1 vs. CREW
Last five: D-L-L-L-L-L
Next five: vs. ORL, @ NE, @ NYC, vs. LAFC, @ DC

The Fire showed some signs of a pulse this week, with a Thursday draw against the Austin Trees (R.I.P. Crew). By all accounts, the game was exceedingly dull, but it was still Chicago’s first result of any kind since a surprising win over NYCFC on June 30. They need to run the table over the final seven matches to have any hope of making the playoffs, and even that might not be enough.

Orlando City SC

This week: L, 1-2 vs. ATL
Last five: L-L-D-L-L
Next five: vs. PHI, @ SKC, @ CHI, vs. HOU, @ DAL

I like to think that Luciano Acosta’s last-second winner against Orlando at Audi Field was the straw that finally broke the camel’s back, but this team has been dead for a while now. The Lions have just four points since May 6. They have nine matches remaining to pick up points, but they aren’t doing anything except playing spoiler at this point (wanna start this weekend?).

And the West standings.

Club Pts PPG GP (Home)
Dallas 46 1.84 25 (13)
Kansas City 45 1.8 25 (13)
LAFC 43 1.65 26 (13)
Real Salt Lake 41 1.52 27 (13)
LA Galaxy 38 1.41 27 (14)
Seattle 38 1.52 25 (12)
Portland 37 1.54 24 (12)
Vancouver 37 1.42 26 (12)
Minnesota 29 1.12 26 (13)
Houston 28 1.12 25 (14)
Colorado 24 0.92 26 (14)
San Jose 17 0.68 25 (12)

Here's how they did last week.

Dallas: D, 1-1 @ HOU (Thu.)
Kansas City: W, 2-0 vs. MIN
LAFC: D, 1-1 @ LAG
Real Salt Lake: W, 6-0 @ COL
LA Galaxy: D, 1-1 vs. LAFC
Seattle: W, 1-0 @ POR
Portland: L, 0-1 vs. SEA
Vancouver: W, 3-2 @ SJ
Minnesota: L, 0-2 @ SKC
Houston: D, 1-1 vs. DAL (Thu.)
Colorado: L, 0-6 vs. RSL
San Jose: L, 2-3 vs. VAN

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