Fiery. Talismanic. Possessed.

Fabian Espindola, D.C. United’s most enthusiastic forward, is a magnet for the sorts of adjectives generally reserved for Viking berserkers and supernatural villains. The Argentinian plays with an aggressive passion that tends to be equal parts attractive and dangerous, leading many to view him as the savior, or at least focal point, of an often ugly and uncertain offense.

It is quite likely that United fans, if polled, would support the idea that Espindola adds to the team’s overall offensive output beyond his individual goals and assists. His presence seems to increase the number and quality of opportunities that the entire team has to score. At least, to this author, this is an idea that certainly meets the eye test – the team is more productive offensively, as a whole, when Espindola is playing – but do the numbers support that assumption?

In 2015, a combination of suspensions and injuries has forced Espindola to miss 17 out of 32 league matches for the Black and Red, providing a near equal split between games in which he has or has not taken the field. Goals, in soccer, remain the ultimate objective measure of offensive potency, meaning a comparison of goals scored per game average becomes a telling statistic:

As seen in the above Pivot table, United has averaged nearly double the goals scored per game (GF, or Goals for) when Espindola has played.

Of course, one easy way to quibble with the above data is to point out that Espindola played in the August 1st game against RSL, where United scored 6 times, well above their average and enough of a deviation to potentially skew the results. For the sake of discussion, the following pivot removes the 6 goals that United scored, and evaluates the data as if United had lost that game 0-4.

As demonstrated above, giving United a 0-4 loss to RSL instead of a 6-4 win results in a GF average nearly half again as high when Espindola is on the field as compared to when he is missing.

By sorting for home and away results, we can see that the Espindola Effect is particularly pronounced for home matches:

While the difference in GF average for road games is negligible, United has averaged twice as many goals per game when Espindola has played at home, a difference of more than one entire goal per game.

The "did that really need to be said" takeaway from this information: For United to truly do damage in the playoffs, we need Espindola available and a chance to play at home. In all other scenarios, our GF averages forecast a bleak chance of advancement against the high powered offenses we are likely to face.

Potential Part II: Taking a look at goals conceded and Plus/Minus data for players like Espindola and Hamid.