I’m predicting a great return to form next year. And the Timbers already have former United netminder Steve Cronin. So we really only have to worry about Tommy Soehn and the Whitecaps. However, Pat Onstad was left unprotected by the Dynamo. I know he’s old as the hills, but I’d probably prefer Onstad to Perkins myself, and when you throw in the fact that he’s a Canadian international, he begins to look pretty attractive for Vancouver.

I’m surprised we’re protecting Zayner and Junior. I think Hernandez still has potential with DCU, and Jordan Graye has a ton of upside.
As much as I have faith in Perkins, I understand @BillHamid28 is the future of our goalkeeping.

Perkins’s form and price tag are two big factors that would weigh against taking him. That said, Tommy Soehn knows him pretty well from his years here and might take him if Onstad isn’t available after the 4th round of the expansion draft (I read somewhere that that was when they’d consider taking the Dynamo GK home to Canada).

I don’t think Hernandez is likely to be taken. He’s got a lot of potential in this league if he gets good players around him, but that oh-fer goal tally over his half season here is pretty stark against his salary. I’d certainly like to see him develop here in DC next year, and I think we will.

Junior makes sense if we really like the kid and if we needed to fill another protected international slot.

Bold prediction: Devon McTavish will go to Vancouver on the last selection of the Expansion Draft.

It’s telling that even though our real list has 2 players on it that my list did not, I’m not all that upset or worried. I doubt Portland will take any of our players, and the only reason Vancouver might is because Soehn has some favorites still here. There’s a significant chance that we escape this thing completely unscathed.

As I said above, Hernandez is pretty much untouchable because of his goalscoring record and salary figure. With him out, Junior more or less got protected by default (would you rather see us protect a teenager with potential or a 34 year old considering a move back home?). No big deal there. I’m sure both teams will look at Hernandez’s skill on the ball, his size, and his savvy (just looked this up: Hernandez was our most-fouled player, drawing 36 fouls in just 14 league appearances) and consider him, but his salary is prohibitive considering he didn’t score in MLS and only scored in the Open Cup on a penalty.

The surprise to me is that King was chosen over Perkins. I see the arguments for making this decision: King’s a cheap, youngish player that can be a regular in a decent MLS midfield. He can function in any sort of midfield you’ll throw out there. I can also see why Perkins was left available, since he’s very expensive and was pretty poor for most of 2010.

However, I have my reservations about both sides of that argument. King’s a decent player, sure, but surely we could replace him if we lost him. Both Chicago and Seattle didn’t really miss him thanks to drafting Peter Lowry (Chicago) and finally letting Nathan Sturgis settle in a set position (Seattle). Those aren’t all stars.

Meanwhile, Perkins struck me as simply someone who lost confidence. If Portland or Vancouver believes they can restore his belief, they could very easily have a keeper that was not far from the 2010 World Cup squad as of last year’s preseason. His salary is high, but if you can get him back into the form he had in Norway, he’s worth it. If he gets taken, our starting goalkeeper is a 19 year old. Hamid impressed just about everyone when he stepped in for Perkins, but it was a) within the context of us needing any kind of good news and b) within the context of having lowered our expectations because of his inexperience and youth. In those contexts, Hamid did great. Removed from that vacuum, he had issues with communication and decision-making. Those are understandable issues for a young player, but when the whistle blows you don’t get a break for being a promising youngster.

Leaving Perkins unprotected means one of the two things:

1. DCU has identified a goalkeeper playing somewhere else right now that can be had for less than Perkins makes, and will be signed if Perkins is taken here or is unwilling to renegotiate his deal.
2. DCU has left Perkins unprotected without any sort of plan for what we’ll do if he goes.

Given our recent record of poor planning, #2 looms as a distinct possibility.