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Race for the MLS Playoffs - Week 32

It took D.C. United more than 80 minutes to take a clear and obvious lead over the Chicago Fire on Sunday afternoon, but they hung on for a much-needed 2-1 victory to keep pace with Montreal in the MLS playoff race. United now have 41 points in 30 games, and just four more matches remaining to overtake the Impact for the East’s sixth and final playoff spot.

We also saw all hell break loose around the rest of the league, which was fun. Let’s take a look at what happened.

Club Pts PPG GP (Home)
Atlanta* 66 2.06 32 (16)
Metros* 65 2.03 32 (16)
NYCFC 53 1.66 32 (16)
Philadelphia 50 1.56 32 (16)
Columbus 48 1.5 32 (16)
Montreal 43 1.34 32 (16)
D.C. United 41 1.37 30 (14)
New England 35 1.13 31 (15)
Toronto 33 1.06 31 (16)
Chicago 31 0.97 32 (16)
Orlando 25 0.83 30 (15)

While it was nice to see D.C. ultimately take three points at home, it didn’t change anything for them in the standings. They distanced themselves from New England and Toronto, who both lost, but that’s not their goal at this point; catching Montreal is.

Meanwhile, the middle three spots in the East just got a lot more interesting. Philadelphia finally passed Columbus to move into that all-important fourth position, and are now within three points of an idle NYCFC. This race would be a bit more interesting if there were a few more matches remaining, but NYCFC could feasibly fall as far as fifth if they don’t figure things out over this long break.

Atlanta United

This week: W, 2-1 vs. NE
Last five: W-L-W-W-W
Next two: vs. CHI, @ TOR

Since we’re so close to the playoffs, it’s about time we start looking at the entire conference. First up is Atlanta, who are on pace to both win the Supporter’s Shield and break Toronto FC’s record for points in an MLS season. To do so, they will need to win at home against Chicago and then win or draw against that same Toronto squad on the road on October 28. Adding to the drama is a hamstring injury that will sideline Miguel Almiron for the rest of the regular season, if not longer. They are still good enough to win it all without him -- and the further they advance, the more likely he gets back on the field -- but we’re less than a month away from Atlanta’s first playoff game.

New York Red Bulls

This week: W, 3-1 @ SJ
Last five: W-W-W-D-L
Next two: @ PHI, vs. ORL

The Metros have made the Supporter’s Shield race interesting, but will almost certainly have to win at Philadelphia on September 21 to keep pace with Atlanta. The Union have been fairly beatable at home relative to the rest of the East, but are still playing well, and have given the Metros problems at times. Personally, I’d like to see both teams lose, but a scoreless draw would be just fine too.

NYCFC

This week: Idle
Last five: L-W-D-D-L
Next two: @ DC, vs. PHI

D.C. United could still technically catch NYCFC in the final standings, but that’s not the point of including them here. No, should United make the playoffs, the Cityzens are D.C.’s likely opponent. Even after their awful form of late, NYCFC still hold a three-point lead over Philadelphia with two games remaining, and get a nice long break just before the final couple matches of the year. D.C. arguably should have beaten NYCFC in Yankee Stadium last month with a skeleton crew, and their recent form -- and penchant for quick, controlled passes -- could play well on that joke of a field NYCFC calls home. United need to take care of business first, though, and that includes beating New York at home on September 21.

Philadelphia Union

This week: W, 5-1 vs. MIN
Last five: W-D-W-W-L
Next two: vs. NYRB, @ NYCFC

The Union absolutely blitzed Minnesota United at home over the weekend, scoring four first half goals en route to a 5-1 whitewashing. They now control their own destiny to move as high as third in the East, but have a pair of difficult matches in their way. The Metros are tough to play against home or away, and NYCFC have only lost once at home all season long. Given their recent form (relative to NYCFC’s) and how tough they tend to play against D.C. United, it might be in D.C.’s best interest to see Philadelphia drop points in two weeks and fall into the 4-5 knockout round matchup.

Columbus Crew

This week: L, 0-3 @ MTL
Last five: L-D-W-L-D
Next two: @ ORL, vs. MIN

This isn’t looking great for the Fightin’ Berhalters. They were flattened by Montreal last weekend, and are now staring at a trip to Philadelphia for the knockout round if they can’t make up two points on the Union over their final two matches. Philadelphia will almost certainly win a tiebreaker between the two clubs, but have the tougher remaining schedule. If the Crew can’t move up, they might be in trouble; their 3-8-5 road record is one of the worst among teams currently in playoff spots (in either league), while Philadelphia has been much more consistent away from home.

Montreal Impact

This week: W, 3-0 vs. CREW
Last five: W-L-D-W-W
Next two: vs. TOR, @ NE

I wondered aloud how Montreal would respond to the beating they took in D.C. last weekend. To their credit, they got back up and decisively beat another playoff contender at home just seven days later. The Impact’s win puts a little more pressure on D.C., as it was probably their toughest remaining game. They could finish with as many as 49 points, though their abysmal road record might eventually cost them if they can’t get a result against New England on October 28.

D.C United

This week: W, 2-1 vs. CHI
Last five: W-D-W-D-W
Next four: vs. DAL, vs. TOR, vs. NYCFC, @ CHI

I know I’m not the only one saying this, but D.C. saw firsthand just how hard it can be to gain points on another club last weekend. They watched Montreal walk all over Columbus on Saturday, then had to fight tooth and nail to get three points against the Fire the next afternoon. D.C. can guarantee themselves a playoff spot with nine points in their final four matches -- it would be nice to get those in the next three, huh? -- but could squeak by with a little less if Montreal eventually drops points. First, United have to figure out how to unlock a Dallas side that has won a lot of ugly games of late. Only the Sounders and Metros have allowed fewer goals this year.

New England Revolution

This week: L, 1-2 @ ATL
Last five: L-L-D-D-W
Next three: vs. ORL, @ RSL, vs. MTL

The Revs haven’t been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention yet, but they’re done. They are now six points behind D.C. United and eight points back of Montreal -- who they play on October 28 -- but have just three games remaining to make up those points. Spoiler alert: it’s not going to happen.

Toronto FC

This week: L,1-2 vs. VAN
Last five: L-W-L-W-L
Next three: @ DC, @ MTL, vs. ATL

I pronounced Toronto all-but-dead last week, but the Reds made it official on Saturday when they lost at home against a mediocre Vancouver side. That loss could bode well for D.C. United, though; Sebastian Giovinco now might not be so eager to rush back from his international call-up for Toronto’s mid-week trip to D.C. on October 17, and Toronto might put a little more effort into ruining Montreal’s season just four days after their match against United. They might want to rest Jozy Altidore on the 17th too. You know, just in case.

Chicago Fire

This week: L, 1-2 @ DC
Last five: L-W-L-D-W
Next five: @ ATL, vs. DC

The Fire have been better of late, and we saw that in person on Sunday when they gave D.C. United all they could handle. D.C. were the better team, in my opinion, but better finishing from Chicago’s attackers could have put that game away before D.C. mounted their comeback. That October 28 matchup against United looks much more daunting now.

Orlando City SC

This week: L, 0-2 @ DAL
Last five: L-D-L-L-D
Next four: @ NE, vs. SEA, vs. CREW, @ NYRB

Forget winning. Orlando haven’t scored a goal since September 1, a span of four matches.

And the West standings.

Club Pts PPG GP (Home)
Dallas 57 1.84 31 (16)
Kansas City 53 1.71 31 (16)
LAFC 53 1.71 31 (15)
Portland 51 1.59 32 (16)
Seattle 47 1.57 30 (15)
Real Salt Lake 46 1.44 32 (16)
LA Galaxy 45 1.41 32 (16)
Vancouver 43 1.39 31 (15)
Minnesota 36 1.16 31 (15)
Houston 35 1.17 30 (16)
Colorado 24 0.77 31 (16)
San Jose 20 0.63 32 (16)

Here's how they did last week.

Dallas: W, 2-0 vs. ORL
Kansas City: D, 1-1 vs. LAG
LAFC: W, 3-0 @ COL
Portland: W, 4-1 @ RSL
Seattle: vs. HOU
Real Salt Lake: L, 1-4 vs. POR
LA Galaxy: D, 1-1 @ SKC
Vancouver: W, 2-1 @ TOR
Minnesota: L, 1-5 @ PHI
Houston: @ SEA
Colorado: L, 0-3 vs. LAFC
San Jose: L, 1-3 vs. NYRB

A few final thoughts

  • Portland’s 4-1 win over Real Salt Lake was the biggest result in the entire league over the weekend, and all but guaranteed the Timbers a playoff berth. But Vancouver’s victory at Toronto moved the ‘Caps within just three points of the playoff line, and they have a game in hand on both Real Salt Lake and the Galaxy. Their schedule isn’t great -- they still have to play Sporting KC, LAFC, and Seattle -- but they aren’t dead yet, despite firing Carl Robinson last week.
  • I feel like the Matias Almedya hire in San Jose is going to get swept under the rug, and I don’t think it should be. Matt Doyle isn’t the most popular person around these parts sometimes, but I thought he had a very good take on the Almedya hire; it’s a swing for the fences, and a necessary one. Chivas have been a complete mess at times over the past year, but Almedya was still able to keep them together and win CONCACAF Champions League (even if they were out-played). We’ve heard a lot about MLS trying to catch up to LigaMX over the past few years. If an MLS bottom feeder poaching one of the most high-profile coaches in Mexico isn’t a shot across the bow, I don’t know what is.
  • I’m not sure who is going to come out of the West for MLS Cup, but I sure hope it’s LAFC. The other teams atop that race play some ugly soccer at times, and would almost certainly turn the Final into a slugfest, especially if it’s in Atlanta.
  • That is, unless we get a Rooney vs. Zlatan final. I’ll take that one 100 times out of 100.