The number of times I’ve used some combination of those very phrases to describe Jaime Moreno through his career (mostly before the last couple years) is uncanny. If he drops to #3, odds are good he’ll be the best pick available.

FWIW, I’m definitely in the “best player available” camp. United needs depth at every position, and if we’re counting on a true rookie to step in and be /the/ guy at any position, then we deserve whatever we get. Plus, you never know when the injury bug will strike (again), and with 30 roster spots, you’ve got room for depth on the roster.

I guess this is the silver lining of a disastrous 2010: It would take a mistake of monumental proportions to botch this pick. The 2011 draft pool is deep; keeping the pick means we will automatically end up with a player who has very good odds of being a success. As long as Kasper resists any urge to trade the pick away (unless it’s to get someone of proven quality and a early or early-ish first round pick), we should end up feeling better about our roster on the 13th than we do today.

In my early thinking about the draft, I was a little weary of Nagbe only because I wasn’t sure if he projected as a forward or a winger in MLS. However, as time has gone by he’s gone up my list. While Najar, a healthy Pontius, and Ngwenya give us some speedy options, we still have a team that is short on the kind of pace that can really terrorize teams. Nagbe has that kind of speed, and in the modern game there’s no such thing as too much team speed. When a guy like Caleb Porter offers up this kind of praise, you know you’ve got a big-time player on your hands. Nagbe’s Generation Adidas status is just icing on the cake.

The only problem for us, if Nagbe is on the top of Olsen and Kasper’s list on draft day, is that he probably won’t be on the table at #3. Vancouver’s current roster only contains one player capable of playing striker in MLS, and that’s Atiba Harris (who is probably better as a wide man anyway). Meanwhile, Portland’s strike force includes the unproven Eddie Johnson and Bright Dike, who couldn’t even get a worthwhile contract offer from the Crew last season (the same Crew side that spent all season trying unsuccessfully to find a target striker, mind you). In either case, Nagbe would probably be able to go in and start from day one.

Looking at the needs of the expansion teams, I think that we’ll need to trade up for Nagbe. With Pontius returning to health and the acquisition of Ngwenya, I don’t know if we’ll be making a move to pick up Nagbe. Even if we wanted to, I don’t know if Vancouver would be willing to deal. I think Nagbe will be the #1 pick in the draft unless someone offers Vancouver a huge trade.

The fact that he’s skipping the Confine pretty much confirms it. Its likely that Vancouver has already told Nagbe they’ll be picking him first and he should skip the Confine to avoid injury. That and because he’s the closest to a sure-thing in this draft class.