D.C. Sports Fans Have More Confidence In United Than Any Other Local Team

by Martin Shatzer on Jun 28, 2025 9:00 AM EDT

Mitchell Layton - Getty Images

Despite the team's losing record, United fans have not lost confidence

You've seen the "Fan Confidence Poll" on the left hand side of this page, right? You've probably even voted in it a couple of times.

What you might not know if you haven't taken the full tour of the SB Nation network is that these fan confidence polls are also on all the other blogs that are part of a regional group, and that all of the polls for the D.C. sports teams are aggregated on the SB Nation D.C. front page.

Now here's what some may find shocking: D.C. United currently has a higher fan confidence rating (68) than any other local team.

United's rating is higher than the team that had the best record in all of hockey last year (60).

And their rating is higher than the team that just added a two-time Super Bowl winning coach who is already changing the organizational culture (61).

And their rating is higher than the team that just drafted the undisputed top rookie in the 2010 class (61).

It's really incredible that D.C. United's rating is so high, despite them still sitting at the bottom of MLS's Eastern Conference. I've got some theories as to why.

Fans of other D.C. sports teams have long suffered through many seasons of disappointments, and are not yet willing to fully buy in to the confidence that the media is trying to create surrounding their teams. The Redskins, Nationals, and Wizards are all coming off awful seasons, but each has had some very positive signs in the past few months of a major turnaround. But their fans (especially those of the Redskins and Wizards) have seen this kind of stuff before. They don't want to get too confident until they see some results.

United fans, on the other hand, are used to winning. They may see our early season struggles as just a bump in the road. DCU is still the most successful club in MLS history. Could that be a deciding factor in our confidence?

Looking across the other regional sites seems to throw a wrench into that theory. The most successful NFL team of all time has a fan confidence rating of only 55, according to SB Nation Pittsburgh. So much for history. And yet a peak at the New York page shows us that the Red Bulls have a confidence rating of 77. And they haven't won a goddamn thing. Maybe fans of MLS teams are just overconfident across the board?

I'm not quite sure of the correct explanation. But it's something I'm going to keep my eye on as the season progresses.

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Comments

It's gotta be context

United fans saw a team doing everything wrong, and they’ve made big strides since. That has still left them as a middle-of-the-road MLS team: Good in midfield, decent in defense, and our forwards move well to create chances but are not sharp enough finishers to make that count. It should be enough to go slightly over .500 for the rest of the season. Considering how things were going, you can see why confidence is where it is (my last vote was for 60, incidentally). Based on the low expectations United created, the current decent-yet-flawed standard of play isn’t too shabby.

Contrast that with the Caps, who gave fans reasons to expect a real shot at the Stanley Cup only to crash out to the Eastern Conference’s #8 seed. In that context, your reaction is obviously going in the opposite direction: Having created huge expectations, anything short of a championship team was going to see confidence drop.

Black and Red United

by ChestRockwell on Jun 28, 2025 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

My thoughts too.

While the Nats have Strasburg, the rest of the team still blows. Caps fans know they fell short, Redskins fans are turning emo even as we speak, and the Wizards are in the same situation as the Nats are. Meanwhile, DC United just beat AC Milan and El Salvador’s national team and were 6-0-1.

Come September, when Wizards fans are talking themselves into playoffs and Caps fans are already making parade routes, it’ll be different.

Simulated Gameday Experience - just like the real thing, only we have smoke machines.

by Chris Pendley on Jun 28, 2025 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess part of what you’re both saying is that its a recency effect. So conceivably we could see United and the Nationals both dropping lower when the results are in this week.

Managing Editor for BlackAndRedUnited.com. Weekend Writer for SBNation DC.

by Martin Shatzer on Jun 28, 2025 8:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

The Nats should drop like a rock.

United? Not so sure. The last game could’ve just been a one-off or a sign of things to come (which look like things we’ve seen, too). I suspect if said poll went live in, say, mid-May it would’ve resulted in much different results.

Simulated Gameday Experience - just like the real thing, only we have smoke machines.

by Chris Pendley on Jun 29, 2025 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions

From an outsider's perspective

Redskins: Terrible season + Haynesworth= low confidence

Capitals: UPSET by 8th seed= Still depressed over loss. Will pick up once a new season begins.

Wizards: Wall won’t cover up the fact Arenas is MIA and the team is still rebuilding.

Nationals: If only they could clone Strasburg to play every position.

United: 6 game win streak, team looking like a decent team for awhile= YAY!! COOKIES for Everyone!

I do think a winning tradition does instill a good amount of confidence in fans.

Ski-U-Mah!

by CrazyCollegian on Jun 28, 2025 10:31 PM EDT reply actions

If you check out Japers’ Rink (the Caps blog on SB Nation) I think you’ll find that the fans are taking a wait-and-see right now rather than being depressed. Drafts in hockey are for players still several years from the big leagues (especially when your pick is fourth from the bottom :)) and free agency hasn’t hit yet (that’s tomorrow). The Caps will be seeing some fairly major roster changes to address why the upset happened - the front office has said as much - and the changes that need to happen have been identified. Beyond a few shrewd guesses based on who’s been let go, nobody’s completely sure what exactly the team will look like come October, so it’s hard to assign a confidence level to anything.

That and I don’t think people on that blog really care about the confidence voting thing.

Worth noting: The NHL free agency crop this year is pretty thin at the positions the Caps are looking for, but there are some sleeper possibilities. Their GM is a fairly conservative guy and doesn’t make a splash to make a splash, though he’ll do something if he thinks it’s the right move.

I wouldn’t stress too much over Strasburg being too good for the Nats. Sounds like what a lot of talking heads said about Alexander Ovechkin when he went to the Caps and for the first couple of years thereafter. Look at where they are now.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

by gotsparkly on Jun 30, 2025 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

True

Thanks for your comments.

I agree. The Capitals have the potential to do very well next season.

Ski-U-Mah!

by CrazyCollegian on Jul 5, 2025 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions

It's funny

In Detroit, the Lions fanbase is BY FAR the most optimistic of the four Detroit sports franchises. This is despite the Red Wings being perennial title contenders and the Tigers currently sitting in first place. I think it’s an interesting contrast to the mood in D.C., specifically with the Redskins.

As far as DCU is concerned, I think the winning tradition has a lot to do with fans’ confidence. I might even argue that the USA’s victory over Algeria plays a role in getting more people excited about soccer in general. The recent winning streak also plays a factor, but I think DC’s winning pedigree plays a bigger role.

Detroit4Lyfe

by handsomerob1 on Jun 29, 2025 11:39 AM EDT reply actions