MLS Playoff Scenarios for the Final Week

With just one weekend (and one game this Wednesday night -- who makes these schedules?) left in the MLS regular season, it makes sense to look at the playoff scenarios for every team that's still alive. I'll go through both the Eastern and Western Conferences, with a handy graphic to show you who could possibly finish where.

Eastern Conference

New York Red Bulls

Current: 1st, 57 points
Best Case: 1st
Worst Case: 1st
Remaining Game: @ Chicago

The Metros clinched first place in the East, and they'll win the Supporters Shield as long as they win and Dallas doesn't make up the 6-goal deficit in goal differential. It's pretty easy.

D.C. United

Current: 2nd, 51 points
Best Case: 2nd
Worst Case: 4th
Remaining Game: @ Columbus

DCU may have thrown away their big lead, but they can still earn a first round bye with a win, or a draw and a non-win by Toronto against Montreal. At the very least, DCU is guaranteed a home playoff game, regardless of whether it's the play-in, or a conference semifinal.

Columbus Crew

Current: 3rd, 50 points
Best Case: 2nd
Worst Case: 5th
Remaining Game: vs. D.C. United

Columbus will want very much to beat DCU, because a loss paired with a New England win would see the Crew end up on the road in a play-in game. In that scenario, New England and Columbus would tie in points and wins, and New England's goal differential would be 0 or better, and the Crew's would be -1 or worse.

Toronto FC

Current: 4th, 49 points
Best Case: 2nd
Worst Case: 6th
Remaining Game: @ Montreal

Toronto could find themselves in 2nd if they beat Montreal while DCU and Columbus draw, as they'd be level on points with United, but with one more victory. Otherwise, TFC will be stuck in a play-in game.

Montreal Impact

Current: 5th, 48 points
Best Case: 3rd
Worst Case: 6th
Remaining Game: vs. Toronto

Montreal are in the bizarre position of being unable to finish fourth. They can only climb with a win over Toronto, so their place would then depend on the DCU/CLB game, and take a look at the possibilities:

In any case, the Impact know that they are playing in a play-in game no matter what.

New England Revolution

Current: 6th, 47 points
Best Case: 3rd
Worst Case: 7th
Remaining Game: @ New York City FC

It's simple for the Revs: Don't lose to NYCFC and they guarantee their passage to the playoffs. Even if they do lose, Orlando would have to win and overturn the 8-goal deficit in goal differential. It's mathematically possible for New England to miss out, but it's highly unlikely.

Orlando City SC

Current: 7th, 44 points
Best Case: 6th
Worst Case: 7th
Remaining Game: @ Philadelphia

The most likely path for Orlando is something along the lines of a 4-0 win over Philadelphia and a 4-0 loss by New England to NYCFC, since Orlando would advance on the goals scored tiebreaker. That's probably not happening.

Western Conference

FC Dallas

Current: 1st, 57 points
Best Case: 1st
Worst Case: 1st
Remaining Game: vs. San Jose

FC Dallas has clinched the top seed in the Western Conference. Realistically, they need to beat San Jose and hope Chicago beats or draws the Red Bulls to win the Supporters Shield. Chances aren't great.

Los Angeles Galaxy

Current: 2nd, 51 points
Best Case: 2nd
Worst Case: 6th
Remaining Game: @ Kansas City

In the Eastern Conference, the current #2 plays #3, and the current #4 plays #5. In the West, there is just one matchup that features teams currently in the playoffs, and this is it. LA really needs to beat SKC, because the three teams below them are hosting teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Vancouver Whitecaps

Current: 3rd, 50 points
Best Case: 2nd
Worst Case: 6th
Remaining Game: vs. Houston

Portland Timbers

Current: 4th, 50 points
Best Case: 2nd
Worst Case: 7th
Remaining Game: vs. Colorado

Seattle Sounders

Current: 5th, 48 points
Best Case: 2nd
Worst Case: 7th
Remaining Game: vs. Real Salt Lake

These three teams are playing teams who cannot reach the playoffs. Of this group, only Vancouver is safe, but any of them can finish 2nd mathematically. Winning their games at home would go a long way to at the very least maintaining their place, but it isn't a certainty, because...

Sporting Kansas City

Current: 6th, 48 points
Best Case: 2nd
Worst Case: 7th
Remaining Games: vs. Colorado, vs. Los Angeles

... because Kansas City has two games left. The picture will be more clear after their Wednesday game against the Rapids. A win over Colorado would book SKC into the postseason, and two wins would see them finish in 2nd, since they'd have the wins tiebreaker over LA.

San Jose Earthquakes

Current: 7th, 47 points
Best Case: 6th
Worst Case: 7th
Remaining Game: @ Dallas

Does FC Dallas value the Supporters Shield? Will they rest their starters in a game that is meaningless as has to do with the Western Conference? San Jose will hope that the answers to those questions are no and yes, respectively. San Jose's best hope is beating Dallas and hoping that either Seattle doesn't win their match against RSL, or Portland loses to Colorado. It could happen.

That's it. Every other MLS team is watching it all unfold. Orlando's probably done, but San Jose has a little bit of a shot. Do you think the Earthquakes will squeeze into the playoffs? Does Toronto have a good chance to earn a first round bye?