Eastern Conference Finals: D.C. United Late-Game Heroics Will Be Needed Once Again!

Setting aside the non-calls, injuries, and player suspensions that affected the outcome of the Eastern Conference Finals' first leg, it's hard to imagine that D.C. United won't need a late goal in the second leg if they hope to advance to the 2012 MLS Cup. Overcoming a two-goal deficit will be a huge challenge, as we saw in the Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Dynamo playoff series in the Conference Semifinals. However, if D.C. United is going to get the job done, and nothing about this team says they can't do it, it will almost certainly require getting a late goal in regulation to tie or win on aggregate, or a goal in extra time to win the series outright. But, how has D.C. United performed this year in games with late goals?

1. 2012 regular season late-goal statistics. Across the entire regular season, late game goals (either for or against) were not as big a factor for D.C. United as they were for most other teams in Major League Soccer. Here is the rundown of how D.C. United compared to the rest of the league in both goals scored and goals conceded in the 76th minute or later (including stoppage time) of a match. As the table shows, D.C. United scored a below-average-number of late game goals, but they also gave up the fewest in the league (along with three other teams, including the Dynamo).

2. 2012 playoff late-goal statistics (to date). During the 2012 MLS playoffs to date, six late-game goals have been scored (and conceded). D.C. United won their series against New York with some late-game magic from Nick DeLeon, while United gave up a late-game goal to Houston to go down 3-1 in the first leg of the Conference Final.

3. Decisive late-game goals. In D.C. United's 37 regular season and playoff games so far this year, 15 have involved late-game goals. In the table below, these games are listed, and if the late-game goal was scored by the opposing team, the scorer's name (along with the player who assisted) is shown in parentheses. Perhaps most interestingly, of the 15 matches involving late-game goals, eight of the matches had the final result determined by a decisive late-game goal. For example, the first match of the season had a decisive late-game goal when CJ Sapong scored in the 93rd minuted to win the game for Sporting. Without that goal, the game would have ended in a draw, so the goal is labeled as being decisive. The second game of the season at the LA Galaxy had two late-game goals, one by the Galaxy and one by United, but neither of these goals were decisive to the final result since LA would have won despite them. In games with a decisive late-game goal, D.C. United won five, lost one, and twice gave up the lead and were tied, for an overall 5-1-2 record.

4. Which D.C. United players have contributed to late-game goals? In a statistic that is sure to add fuel to the discussion of who Ben Olsen should play in the second leg of the Eastern Conference Finals, no player has scored more late-game goals for United than Hamdi Salihi. Additionally, Nick DeLeon, Chris Pontius, Branko Boskovic, and Dwayne De Rosario have also contributed to multiple late-game goals.

5. So, who plays on Sunday? In the last three games, Ben Olsen has been unable to fully use his substitutes as he would like due to red cards and injuries. In the next match against Houston, will Ben Olsen keep players on the bench who have proven themselves productive in the late stages of a match having to dig out of a two-goal aggregate deficit? Or, will he play them early to ensure they are on the field for the late minutes of the game?

What's your opinion? How will Sunday's second leg unfold, and who should be on the field in the closing minutes?