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Two to go

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As much as I pride myself on being the model in consistency in posting shortly after each match, my priorities have changed slightly over the past several weeks, such that work, school, and family have taken a noted advantage over watching meaningless soccer matches.  I watched very little of the Saprissa match, and most but not all of the Houston match, but the idea of this post is to discuss slightly broader issues.  But first, let's get this formality out of the way…

10/9/08: 2-2 Tie at Saprissa
Top Shelf: Francis Doe, Quavas Kirk
Call: Rod Dyachenko
Rail: Zach Wells, Pat Carroll

10/12/08: 0-0 Tie at Houston
Top Shelf: Greg Janicki, Louis Crayton, Marc Burch
Call: Clyde Simms
Rail: Thabiso Khumalo, Joe Vide

DC United played for the tie on Sunday, and given the situation without 4 of our top 5 goalscorers and shorthanded for most of the match, I can't argue with that decision, and the 0-0 result should be praised as a good one.  But now we still sit at 34 points, which is 3 points out of the playoffs with two matches remaining.

In my mind, the only chance we have of making the playoffs is to win the final two.  This would leave us with 40 points.  But with our extremely negative goal differential, even 40 points might not be enough.  If KC and NY both get 1 win and 1 tie, we're out.  If one of those teams earns 4 points, and either Dallas or Colorado wins both games, we're out.

If United wins both of our final two matches, I set our playoff chances at around 60%.  But if we lose or tie tomorrow, our chances are almost definitely nil.  With Moreno and Emilio back in the lineup, we have our best chance of winning in weeks.  If we can pull it off, then I'll be back tomorrow night with another playoff possibility breakdown.  If we don't, then I'll be back tomorrow with a wish list for next year, because this season will be done.