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DC United's Penalty Problem

Growing up with DC United in the early 2000s, I think I began to take penalty kick goals for granted, as there was hardly any uncertainty that Jaime Moreno would ever fail to convert from the spot when called upon. More recently, however, we have not been as lucky, with Dwayne De Rosario and more recently Fabian Espindola faltering in crucial moments. I decided to consult the data (available at mlssoccer.com) to see if there were in fact any statistical trends in our penalty prowess over the last decade, and I made some interesting discoveries.

Before I get to conversion rates, however, there is a story to be told simply by looking at the number of penalties taken by DC United each season.

Year

DCU Penalties

MLS Penalties

2013

3

81

2012

2

74

2011

10

84

2010

2

56

2009

8

63

2008

5

48

2007

7

57

2006

3

44

2005

9

59

As one might surmise, the number of DC United penalties in a given season is linked with overall performance – a better team spends more time around an opponent’s box, which leads to a higher chance of earning a penalty. It’s not a great correlation – only two penalties in the 2012 season – but it works fairly well, as seen in this graph of penalties and our points per game in each season.

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And just to prove that this correlation is not a coincidental byproduct of league-wide trends in the number of penalties awarded, I also calculated the penalties per game of both DC United and the league, taking into account the growing number of teams in MLS over the last decade and the change to a 34-game schedule:

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The number of penalties per game in the league shows a slight decrease on average over time, unlike DC United’s number, which does not show any clear long-term trends. Oddly, however, both series consistently fluctuate, never increasing or decreasing in consecutive years. Overall, it seems safe to conclude that the number of DC penalties in a given year is for the most part determined by our overall performance, thus we will have more penalties in a year where we perform well.

Moving on to conversion rates, there is another story to be told by the data. After Jaime Moreno retired after the 2010 season, DC United has never converted at a better rate than the rest of the league, after never failing to do so since 2005:

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(Sorry for the small image, not exactly sure how this whole formatting thing works. A larger version should be available here)

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Of course, this observation does not convincingly prove anything, especially when considering the tiny sample size of DCU penalties. When one missed penalty in a season can drop DC’s conversion rate from 100% to 50%, it’s hard to make meaningful comparisons to the MLS rate, which has remained fairly constant, hovering around 80%.

What can be concluded, however, is that in the six seasons I analyzed that Moreno played for DC United, we missed two penalties, one by Moreno and one by Christian Gomez, and converted 32/34 for a rate of 94%, well above the league average. In the three seasons after Moreno’s retirement, we missed four, one by Charlie Davies and three by De Rosario (this jumps to five in four seasons if including Espindola’s miss in the current season).

When buoyed by the ten penalties earned in 2011, DC United’s conversion rate post-Moreno stands at a slightly-below-average 71% (12/17, includes the 2014 season as of 6/24/14). If we exclude 2011, however, DC United have made a lowly 57% of our penalties (4/7) in the last three seasons. Missed penalties often lead to dropped points (see Espindola, Fabian), and to miss three of seven penalties over three seasons is a lot of potential dropped points, especially considering the narrow margins by which many teams miss the playoffs.

Of course, sample size plays a part in this analysis – three missed penalties out of seven looks like a problem, while three missed penalties out of fifteen would probably be nothing to worry about. But sample size could also be considered part of the problem: DC have earned fewer penalties in 2014, 2013, and 2012 combined than in 2011 alone. There are plenty of potential reasons for this: we were much more offensive in 2011 and thus earned more penalties, or we were better at/more willing to dive in 2011 (see Davies, Charlie), or we got lucky or unlucky with ref decisions in any given year. The list goes on. But earning fewer penalties is no excuse to score less of them.

Despite the small sample size over the last few seasons, I think it is fair to conclude that DC United has a penalty problem. But why has it happened, and how can it be fixed? Maybe we already figured it out – De Rosario was responsible for three misses in four years, and he is gone now. Maybe the solution is on the team already – Chris Pontius is 4/4 from the spot in his career, Luis Silva scored one against Montreal, and Espindola’s miss against Columbus was surely a fluke, no? But maybe the problem is more systematic. I have no idea how much or what kind of coaching goes into penalty taking, but if this continues to be an issue, can some of the blame be put on the coaching staff for not teaching good technique or not watching film of opposing goalkeepers? Is there some sort of psychological crisis of confidence, with players not able to deal with the pressure of taking penalties, even though our recent misses have come from veterans De Rosario and Espindola, not younger, untested players? Or are we simply just a victim of randomness and bad luck, with the guessing game of penalties going against our favor more often than not in recent years? There is no simple answer. We can only hope that through attacking prowess and a little bit of luck, DC United increases its penalty sample size and proves my diagnosis incorrect.

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