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Selected DC United Numbers vs New England (Game 12)

Let us examine the DC United game using soccer statistics. I'll be using selective statistics that I find potentially very interesting largely taken from the chapters of The Number Game: why everything you know about soccer is wrong by Chris Anderson & David Sally and Soccernomics by Simon Kuper & Stefan Szymanski.


I know not all statistics are useful for soccer. But empirical evidence shows selected statistics are predictive of results, goals, and player value. I will entertain the notion of doing more complicated analyses or examining additional statistics provided the data are available. I am using data from WhoSocred.com and MLSSoccer.com.


Hopefully these numbers provide useful game insight and predictive utility. Explanations for why I selected these numbers can be found in my first post of this series.


The Weakest Link



season avg. WhoSocred

vs NER 5-24

vs HOU 5-21

vs MTL 5-16

Bill Hamid

6.95

7

7.3

7.5






Bobby Boswell

7.18

6.9

7.4

6.5

Cristian Fernandez

7.32

8.3

8

7.2

Chris Korb

6.78

6.9

7.4

7.4

Jeff Parke

7.03

6.2

7.4

6.4






Davy Arnaud

6.84

7.1

7.4

6.3

Alex Caskey

6.14

6.1

DNP

DNP

Nick DeLeon

6.80

6

7.4

6.5

Perry Kitchen

6.82

6

7.5

7.1

Colin Martin

6.20

6.2

DNP

DNP

Lewis Neal

6.30

6.1

6.8

6.1

Kyle Porter

6.06

6.2

DNP

DNP

Chris Rolfe

7.18

DNP

8.6

6.9

Luis Silva

6.43

DNP

6

6.8






Conor Doyle

6.12

DNP

6.1

6

Fabian Espindola

7.44

7.3

8.7

8.2

Eddie Johnson

6.75

5.3

DNP

8.2


*Chris Rolfe's first three ratings (including the DNP) are from his performances with Chicago.

*An explanation for WhoScored’s ratings can be found here


Inferences

Eddie Johnson. You are the weakest link. His low rating is almost certainly due to his red card. His passing was pretty good but his aerial duels won wasn’t that good. Assuming the red card stands that’s 1 goal and 2 suspensions since he wasn’t called up to the USMNT. EJ being EJ.


Thankfully, DC has Fabi being Fabi. Now Espindola is a sub that came on that made a difference. Only him and Rofle (when he scored against NER) are the two subs that have made a difference (a positive difference).


Cristian Fernandez! Once again being one of DCU’s best. In fact of the past 3 games only Espindola has better ratings. And some people want Fernandez benched.


KEEP THE BALL!



Possession: 53% (black part of the pie, orange being New England 47%)

Total passes: 421 vs 372

LSR = .18

Turnovers: Data Not Available% (Season Avg. = 50% SD = 4%)

Through Balls = 0

DCU Final Third passing: 98 attempts (black bar) & 66 completions (red bar)*

NER Final Third passing: 178 attempts (blue) & 110 completions (light blue)*


Inferences

*First a note MLSSoccer.com has changed their reporting style and data again. I am estimating the Final Third Passing numbers given the provided information and the raw data for the Turnover Percentage is no longer available. Ugh.


Hey, DCU had more of the possession. Unusual for them. Of course DCU had little passing in the final third. DCU’s final third passing numbers were below their norm. So, they didn’t do much with that possession.


Click here for the first match numbers.

*I would also point out that the above statistics are correlated with league points earned but that is for an entire season (with European data too - may not apply in MLS) and not necessarily predictive of individual games.



SHOOT THE BALL!

DC United: 12 Shots (15 by New England)

BIG CHANCES: 0

1 Goals

TSR = .44


Inferences

Out shot. DC fell back to Earth after the Houston game, at least in terms of the TSR (which was .70). DCU’s 12 shots is right at their season average. It’s 9 shots per goal and we saw 27 and 3 goals. So, that was right on the money. Unfortunately, for DCU that 3rd goal went against them.


Summary

3 games in a week. 4 points out of 9 possible. New England didn’t play midweek. And their last two opponents. So there’s a way to look at this as a positive. But EJ isn’t showing well and DCU’s best game came without playing and DCU’s depth only got a little test with Caskey and Martin. Never of whom distinguished themselves via the ratings. Nor have any other bench players. That’s got to be concerning for the rest of the season. Yet, DCU is looking good for a playoff position.


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