FanPost

Selected DC United Numbers vs Dallas Burn (Game 7)

Let us examine the DC United game using soccer statistics. I'll be using selective statistics that I find potentially very interesting largely taken from the chapters of The Number Game: why everything you know about soccer is wrong by Chris Anderson & David Sally and Soccernomics by Simon Kuper & Stefan Szymanski.


I know not all statistics are useful for soccer. But empirical evidence shows selected statistics are predictive of results, goals, and player value. I will entertain the notion of doing more complicated analyses or examining additional statistics provided the data are available. I am using data from WhoSocred.com and MLSSoccer.com.

Hopefully these numbers provide useful game insight and predictive utility. Explanations for why I selected these numbers can be found in my first post of this series.


The Weakest Link


season avg. WhoSocred

vs DAL 4-26

Bill Hamid

6.72

7.1

Andrew Dykstra

6.90

DNP

Jeff Parke

7.16

7.1

Bobby Boswell

7.36

8

Cristian Fernandez

7.04

7.6

Sean Franklin

6.93

7.4

Chris Korb

6.00

6

Davy Arnaud

6.75

7.1

Perry Kitchen

6.71

6.5

Chris Rolfe

7.08

7.7

Nick DeLeon

6.93

6.7

Luis Silva

6.55

6.3

Alex Caskey

6.15

DNP

Kyle Porter

5.99

DNP

Lewis Neal

6.13

DNP

Jared Jeffrey

6.00

DNP

Fabian Espindola

7.44

10

Eddie Johnson

6.75

6.9

Conor Doyle

6.06

6.5


*Chris Rolfe's first three ratings (including the DNP) are from his performances with Chicago.*An explanation for WhoScored’s ratings can be found here

*I hate html tables.

Inferences

A 10! Fabian Espindola rated a perfect 10. Fuck! The team average was 7.21 versus Dallas’ 6.29. Not really surprising given the ass kicking and you know Dallas earning two red cards.

But this section is about the weakest link. The weakest player actual impacts the team more than the best player (says the empirical evidence). Korb had the lowest rating at 6.0 and Silva at 6.5 but Silva had 16 and 11 minutes of play time respectively and nothing to do but close out the game it’s hard to see him actually being the worst player (Silva had 93% passing accuracy). But Doyle at 6.5 and on the field for nearly the entire second half did not cover himself in glory. Again, Doyle isn’t doing much with his substitution appearances. He may pressure but he's a forward. He does not shoot much and he is not scoring goals. Both things we saw last year as well. Kitchen also had a 6.5 rating. And Kitchen season average isn't great. In comparison Seattle's Alonso is averaging a 7.6 and RSL's Beckerman a 7.4. DeLeon once again put in a middling performance (6.7) but he did have a 91% passing accuracy. I mean Arnaud had a 94% passing accuracy, more touches, more shots, and in this game and for the season is averaging a better rating than DeLeon. DeLeon and Doyle really need to step it up.

KEEP THE BALL!



Possession: 68% (black part of the pie, red being Dallas 32%)
Total passes: 638 vs 298
LSR = .12
Turnovers: 52%
Through Balls = 0

DCU Final Third passing: 116 completions (red bar) of 155 attempts (black bar)
OPP. Final Third passing: 34 completions (yellow) of 75 attempts (blue)

Inferences

68% possession! The season average is now 51% up from 48%. And 638 total passes. HOLY SHIT! DCU’s previous passing high was 466 against Toronto. Dallas made 298 passes. Their average (before this game) was just over 400.
DCU still had slightly more of the turnovers in the game (TSR). But Dallas didn’t do anything with their advantage as can be seen from the final third passing numbers. DCU completed 116 passes in the final third. DCU’s previous high was 123 ATTEMPTS (game 1 vs Columbus). DCU's season average (excluding this game) are 74 completions for 114 attempts. DCU considerably increased their passing in the final third. I wonder why. Maybe they're reading my posts? That must be it. Hi. *waves hand*

Click here for the first match numbers.
*I would also point out that the above statistics are correlated with league points earned but that is for an entire season (with European data too - may not apply in MLS) and not necessarily predictive of individual games.

SHOOT THE BALL!


DC United: 18 Shots (7 on goal)
BIG CHANCES: 0
4 Goals
TSR = .78

Inferences

4 Goals! Look at that TSR. Fucking crazy. That’s domination. Remember the TSR is an indicator of a team’s overall attack and .60 is good. .78 is fucking crazy. Dallas had 5 shots (red portion of bar). Yikes. DCU had 18 shots (black portion of the bar) and now averages 11 per game. 18 shots is DC's new high number for shots just passing the 17 from the Chicago game. 23 totals shots should be good for 2.5 goals in total and yet we got 5. Dallas took only about half as many shots as usual to score theirs and the same for DC. Efficient.

Summary

DC United statistically crushed Dallas in this game. Did this have anything to do with Dallas playing with 10 men? No! I mean yes. So very much yes. All these numbers are far far above what DC United averages. I doubt we will see their like again.


"I'm not going to put too much stock in this game. But I'm feelin' good." Ben Olsen #DCU

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