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Going MLS Trophy Hunting

Since this project proposal for the statistics class I'm in is probably of interest. I'd figure I'd post the proposal now then will post the results in a write up once the project is completed. The project is due 3 December, with the proposal having been turned in yesterday. I'm doing this in partnership with a classmate. The class specifically at GMU that this is for is STAT 350 Intro Stat II. I will also add an extra analysis redoing the third one split out by conference. Note that the below text is copy pasted out of the email I sent to my professor for the proposal submission.

Title: Major League Soccer: Going Trophy Hunting

Objective: To discover what is the minimum number of points are based on the last three years to make the playoffs in either conference as well as winning either the Supporters' Shield or MLS Cup.

Research Hypothesis or Questions: In Major League Soccer (MLS) it is generally stated that to make the playoffs you need to win at home and get a draw on the road. Is that really true? Moreover, What is the difference between the Eastern and Western conferences.

Data Plan: To go to mlssoccer.com and obtain the points, wins, losses, draws, goals scored, and goals allowed in terms of overall, on the road, and at home for the last three seasons. Then to split the teams into conferences and determine their road and home records.

Analysis Plan: First, as stated above we will look at the overall standings for best regular season record and points scored with the understanding that a win is 3 points, a draw 1 point, and a loss is no points. We will determine the affect of goals scored and goals allowed on the number of points gained in the 34 game regular season through a Multiple Linear Regression. The team with the best regular season record wins the Supporters' Shield. Second, we will again look at this overall record but split it by conference and do a Multiple Linear Regression again then compare the Eastern and Western Conferences to discover any differences. The third analysis to be done will be a Logistic Regression with 0 being failing to make the playoffs while a 1 represents making the playoffs. The final analysis will again be a Logistic Regression along the same lines except a 1 will represent winning either the Supporters' Shield or MLS Cup.

Team Member Contributions: I will collect the data and split it out by conference as well as home and away records. Then Sarah will do the Multiple Linear Regressions while I do the Logistic Regressions. Then we will work together to produce the PowerPoint presentation.

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