My Proposed D.C. United Protection List For MLS Expansion Draft
by Martin Shatzer on Nov 15, 2011 9:08 PM EST
Email
Print
Alright. Y'all already had your shot. The Protectinator was our attempt at crowdsourcing the D.C. United protection list for next week's MLS expansion draft, in which Jesse Marsch will be selecting 10 players to be inaugural members of the Montreal Impact.
Now its my turn. In a feature column today for SB Nation D.C., I revealed the 11 players that I would choose to protect on United's roster. And yes, there are some differences from the 11 players that the consensus picked in the Protectinator poll. After the five virtual locks (Dwayne De Rosario, Perry Kitchen, Dejan Jakovic, Chris Pontius, and Brandon McDonald), here are explanations for the other six players that I would protect.
The list gets just a bit murkier after those five building blocks are secured, but Santino Quaranta, Chris Korb, and Josh Wolff should all be protected with little question. Quaranta missed much of the season with concussion symptoms, but was a vital piece for United's attack late in the year. Whether starting in place of the injured Pontius or coming on as a substitute, Quaranta was always involved, and finished the season with a goal and four assists. Korb is one of United's promising young players who was called into action more often than many would have guessed due to injuries to other defenders. D.C.'s second round draft choice earned two assists in 12 games in 2011. On the opposite side of his career, Wolff took over Jaime Moreno's job of veteran leader of the attack quite capably, notching five goals and seven assists on the year.
The final three spots on United's expansion draft protection list face some steep competition. The team could choose to protect Montenegran designated player Branko Boskovic, who saw the field only four times in 2011 due to injury. Boskovic has shown the potential to be an elite MLS player, but has not yet made an impact on the league, and carries a heavy price tag that would likely prevent an expansion team from drafting him. Charlie Davies is also a candidate for protection after scoring 11 goals for D.C. this season, but he is only in MLS on a one-year loan, and appears more likely to return to Europe this offseason. The Impact would be taking a major risk by selecting either Davies or Boskovic, therefore rendering them unlikely to earn protection from United.
The players most likely to occupy the final three protected spots are Clyde Simms, Stephen King, and Daniel Woolard. Simms has been a starter for United in the defensive midfield since 2007, but looks likely to lose his job to Kitchen going into next year. Still, Simms has a high value for Olsen as a substitute, and would be a starter for many other teams in this league. United wouldn't want to lose him without receiving compensation in return, so Simms should make the protection list. King and Woolard each appeared in more than 20 matches for United in 2011 and are two of Olsen's favorites, making them also the favorites to earn the final two spots on the 11-man protected list.
This will leave Austin Da Luz, Blake Brettschneider, and Joe Willis on the outside looking in, and as the most likely candidates to be selected by the Impact. Da Luz arrived in D.C. in a trade with the New York Red Bulls midway through the season and was a frequent contributor, while Brettschneider earned a goal and two assists for his work as a forward this season after getting drafted by United in the fourth round. Willis filled in admirably for Hamid in goal when necessary in three matches, and could be a capable backup again next year. But each of these three players is fairly replaceable if selected. While United would certainly hope not to lose them, moving on without Da Luz, Brettschneider, or Willis wouldn't be impossible.
26 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Who's up top?
By all accounts, Brettschneider is a very good prospect. Lose him in the draft, and who will replace him in what is becoming DCU’s thinnest position? List him and delist either Simms or King. As a Da Luz fan, I’d list him ahead of Simms or King. As for Simms, unless DCU has some sort of trade deal in the works, he should be offered to Montreal.
Simms
Da Luz… King… Brettschneider… Woolard… The last two spots on the list are up for grabs with those 4 involved. But I protect Simms unquestionably. He’s been a starter for this team since 2007, and even if he’s just considered "depth", he’ll be the most valuable piece of depth that we have.
If Pontius gets injured again, and Da Luz is gone, he can be replaced by Boskovic, Quaranta, Barklage, Burch, probably even Wolff or Brettschneider if necessary. That’s why I don’t feel like Da Luz is all that important to us.
But if Kitchen gets injured? And Simms isn’t here? Then we’re either playing King out of position, or playing Morsink. Simms is far more important to this team.
Of course he does have a higher contract too. But if we want to compete for a championship, we’re going to need players on our bench that are "Simms quality", and we’re going to need to pay them what they’re worth. The Galaxy, Sounders, RSL, etc. all have some pretty highly paid substitutes. That’s what Simms will be for us next year.
Managing Editor for BlackAndRedUnited.com. Weekly Columnist for SB Nation D.C..
by Martin Shatzer on Nov 16, 2011 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Major factor: The Olympics
United should keep ahold of Simms, even at his current salary, to have a quality starter during the summer. Over the course of the Olympics, Kitchen could miss 25-33% of the season.
On a team that looks likely to be almost recklessly attack-first (our midfield at this point is Kitchen underneath Najar, Boskovic, and Pontius), playing a 7-10 game stretch with King or Morsink (or McTavish? I’d take him at DM over Morsink) starting will mean shooting the moon during the opening and closing chunks of the season.
Throw in the fact that the Olympics will probably also mean no Hamid and possibly no White, and we’re already going to be conceding goals over that spell. Having no reliable defensive midfielder over that stretch would be brutal.
Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14 | KEEP UNITED IN DC
by ChestRockwell on Nov 16, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
Here's my list
Before I start, these things are so hard to do. There’s a lot behind closed doors that can influence these picks. Contracts, bonuses, locker room dynamics, guys with European interest that hasn’t gone public, players that are quietly unhappy with their role, etc. It’s a crapshoot.
Now that I’ve covered my ass plenty, here goes:
1. De Rosario
2. Kitchen
3. Pontius
4. McDonald
5. Jakovic: These 5 are obvious. De Ro is the most dangerous player in MLS, Kitchen and Pontius are 2 of the best young Americans in the league, and while McDonald and Jakovic are not quite as secure as Ft. Knox, we can’t afford to lose any center backs.
6. Boskovic: He has the game to be a very good MLS playmaker. Given that we’ll probably need to move De Ro into a floating withdrawn forward role (or go sign even more strikers), Boskovic is a must-keep based on current info.
7. Wolff: He and Marsch were teammates in Chicago, and Marsch is from the Arena family tree of coaches; he will go with guys he knows and trusts if possible. Also, you know, 5 goals and 7 assists while providing some quality intangibles in the locker room? That’s something you keep, even at his age.
8. Simms: Yes, he’s probably lost his starting role and will be expensive for a second-choice player. However: He’ll still probably make regular appearances off the bench; he’ll be vital during the Olympics (see previous post); and finally, say we do decide he’s surplus to requirements…giving him up for free here would be silly. Several MLS clubs need help at defensive midfield.
9. Willis: He’s already a reasonable MLS back-up, and he should keep improving with Onstad (like Hamid, Willis has weaknesses in the mental side; Onstad is an ideal GK coach for such players). As I said before, the Olympics will probably mean no Hamid. I’d rather have a keeper we know and can trust to a certain extent rather than add yet another position to the shopping list.
10. Brettschneider: Promising young striker with size and mobility? Most MLS clubs would be interested in him, and he’s also likely our only true striker come preseason. I don’t think he’ll be a starter in 2012 – more likely our first forward off the bench – but I like his game and, in Marsch’s shoes, he’d be on my shortlist of players if he were available. Look at how Portland did things: They didn’t just go for 11 starters, but rather tried to build the infrastructure of a coherent squad, and that requires depth at striker.
11. Davies: This is the trickiest one, but I think we’d be better off trading Davies than letting him go for free. I also don’t think he’s 100% gone yet; 95% maybe, but dramatic swings of emotion and surprise decisions are sort of his thing.
Arguments against players that will make other hypothetical protected lists:
Da Luz - He’s not a bad player, but a winger without speed? The bottom line is that he’s replaceable without much fuss.
Woolard - Woolard has some good qualities, but it’s not like we can’t find a rough equivalent out there. If he ends up on the real list at the expense of Davies, I could live with it.
Korb - I really doubt Montreal would take him, and like Woolard, he’s hardly unique or vital to the squad as currently composed. We need a starting RB ahead of him anyway.
King - This is King’s lot in life: He’s good enough to be a quality role player in MLS, but he’ll never be a guy that a club protects during expansion drafts because of his lack of offensive production. That said, I bet he makes the real-life list after signing that extension a couple months back.
Quaranta - I’ve told friends that Quaranta is a good measuring stick for us. If he’s first-choice, we’re not a playoff team. If he’s just often-used depth, we’re probably pretty good. He’s United through and through, so this feels cruel, but I can’t justify protecting him over any of the 11 I did protect.
Some caveats I thought of (in no particular order):
- Boskovic’s contract status is a question mark. He’ll probably have to take a pay cut to get an extension (his deal ends mid-season 2012), especially with everyone knowing damn well that De Ro will require DP money to be happy. With the club’s financial situation, 2 DPs that aren’t also going to boost attendance dramatically is a no-go.
- With Davies, I could also live with following RSL’s example and trading him to Montreal for draft picks or $$$ with the requirement that the Impact are barred from picking any DC players in the expansion draft. That still gets us something while moving a player that may have been on his way in either case. I’m not sure that makes too much sense for the Impact – Davies is a big USMNT story, and Montreal isn’t in the US – but then again, he does speak some French.
- If Davies is unprotected, I’d protect King next, if only because I think he’s the most likely player to be taken out of the guys I didn’t put on my list.
- Be on the lookout for moves once the lists are released. Usually trades happen during that short period, and obviously a) we are a wheeling-and-dealing kind of club and b) trading astutely in MLS is something we have to keep doing well until Kasper proves that Emilio and Gomez weren’t anomalies.
Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14 | KEEP UNITED IN DC
Surprised that we can agree on so much during the season
…But then disagree on 4 out of the 6 players on this list, outside of the obvious 5.
I think you’re looking at this list as the 11 players you think are most important for United to keep, without putting as much weight into what players Montreal would be interested in selecting. I look at it as more like a chess match between Marsch and Olsen. I want our unprotected list not to include any players that Marsch would feel comfortable selecting.
That’s why I think protecting Boskovic is a total waste. Marsch would be crazy to pick an attacking midfielder with 0 goals who is just coming off a major injury, has a huge contract, and may only be in the league for half the season.
I’m worried that your list would result in the departure of Quaranta. By your logic of Marsch coming from Arena’s tree and picking players he knows, Quaranta is a perfect fit for what he could be looking for. Tino was one of only a very few players who would receive a passing grade from our final 6 games. He really did well in a substitute role, and that’s the role I want him to play next season. For us. Not for someone else.
Managing Editor for BlackAndRedUnited.com. Weekly Columnist for SB Nation D.C..
by Martin Shatzer on Nov 16, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
I think "most important to keep" outweighs trying to figure out Montreal
I should have emphasized that we’re not just talking about coaches here. Marsch and Montreal’s front office are making these picks. That means more variables than we have even imagined.
My protection of Boskovic is based at least partially on how Toronto took RSL to school during TFC’s shot at this. They picked Jason Kreis and held him for hostage. RSL had to trade a substantial amount of allocation money to get him back, all because they thought “no way TFC wants Kreis.” They were right; they didn’t want Kreis, but they did want leverage over a vulnerable team. I can see an argument for leaving Boskovic unprotected, but I’d personally be more comfortable with a cautious approach on this one.
As for Quaranta, I don’t think that’s how my logic works. Marsch knows Wolff because they played together. That’s the connection. It’s not about having played for Arena or Bradley at one point; it’s Arena, Bradley, etc all leaning on “their guys” more than your average coach has. Marsch knows Quaranta as well as he knows, say, any player that was at the Galaxy when he was with Chivas USA. By comparison, Marsch and Wolff have multiple seasons with Chicago as teammates.
Look at Quaranta’s situation this way: Is he really going to be among the 10 best players for Marsch’s needs? He has a veteran’s contract, and is probably done developing. Teams like RSL, Seattle, and LA are going to leave younger players that are close to Tino’s ability today but a) are cheaper and b) have more promise for the future. I’d be shocked if there weren’t at least 2 (probably 3-4) better options in the utility winger/forward category available for Montreal.
Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14 | KEEP UNITED IN DC
by ChestRockwell on Nov 16, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
Quaranta v. Wolff
Use your own logic. Is Wolff really going to be one of Marsch’s 10 selections? The guy is going into his last year. This is an opportunity for Marsch to acquire pieces he will need to build a team that is competitive in a year or two. Even if he were willing to use a pick on one guy who could make a difference in playing just the one year, is Wolff that kind of player at this point in his career?
As for Boscovic — DCU would be OK with losing him and his 500K contract. Montreal isn’t going to snag him unless they want him. They might, but he’s such an unknown commodity at this point.
I think the possibility is strong enough that it can't be dismissed
Wolff might be going into his last season, but that probably depends on his health. His occasional injuries this season were not a departure for him; the guy has picked up muscle pulls over the entire length of his career, so I wouldn’t read him missing some games this year as a sign that he’s just about done.
More than that, I could see Wolff becoming a pretty good assistant upon retiring. Now, where he retires doesn’t automatically dictate where he becomes an assistant (e.g. Steve Ralston), but it does boost the odds. Marsch could be thinking of using Wolff as a regular in 2012, as a player-coach (like Berhalter in LA) in 2013, and then making him a valuable assistant in 2014.
Of course, I need to admit that I’m going way out on a limb trying to read Marsch here. Protecting Wolff is a decision being made by a gut feeling. I think we value Quaranta more than any other club would; objectively, he is somewhat injury prone, struggles with finishing, and turns the ball over way too often because he always tries to play the killer ball. I also doubt he’d be the same player anywhere else; Tino plays every game for United like he’s trying to repay the club for giving him a second chance at life. That kind of motivation cannot be replicated anywhere else, and I think most people around MLS are aware of that.
Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14 | KEEP UNITED IN DC
by ChestRockwell on Nov 17, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Trade Window
I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Marsch offer us something – a selected player from another team, allocation, a lead on a stadium hiding behind National Harbor – in exchange for Wolff during the little window after the protected lists are announced and the start of the expansion draft.
Vamos United; Boiler Up
Support your local club.
Black & Red United
On Boscovic and Davies
I don’t see any reason to protect these two guys. Montreal isn’t going to pick either of them, for contract reasons.
I’d protect Korb for sure — because he’s young, good and DC doesn’t want to lose him — and I’d also protect Quaranta, for the same reasons. I’d probably protect Willis and Brettschneider. I disagree with Shatzy there — and I’d be willing to expose Woolard. I think Montreal is far more likely to take Burch, anyway. I would also want to protect King, so I might take chances with Wolff. Of the two, I’d rather lose King, of course, but would Montreal use a pick on a guy who is going into his final season?
So, my list: De Rosario, Kitchen, Pontius, Jakovic, McDonald, Simms, Quaranta, King, Korb, Willis, Brettschneider.
Would they want Burch?
Just curious, fischy: Why would Montreal want Burch?
My read on the Impact and on Marsch’s upbringing as a player and now as a coach is that defensive players will have to be trustworthy and reliable before we start talking about guys who can add to the attack. I think Montreal will be a conservative team in 2012, and that means building a team more like Philly (who tried to assemble proven defenders and left the midfield and forwards to young players for the most part) than like Portland.
I could just have Burch fatigue, but I’d be pretty confused with the Impact taking him (especially if Woolard is also available).
Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14 | KEEP UNITED IN DC
by ChestRockwell on Nov 17, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Bosko and Davies
I think we’re all missing a key point: De Rosario is our man now (at least for another year), and neither of these two have shown they can work with him well. Boskovic hasn’t shown this simply because they haven’t seen the field together, and Bosko did show some extreme promise right before getting injured, so this is more of a question mark than anything else. Davies on the other hand, was a non-factor to DCU after De Ro joined the team. Davies only contribution to the scoreline after De Ro arrived was his hat trick against Chivas USA, all of which were beautifully set up by Chris Pontius and his teammates in general. While there’s something to be said of being in position and actually finishing those goals, I remember watching the game thinking that Wolff would have finished them off just as well.
Other than the De Ro aspect, Bosko and Davies are also not essential to the locker room composition of this team. The drama Davies causes outside of the locker room could easily affect the locker room atmosphere as well and none of the comments about Boskovic have shown that he’s even much of a presence in the locker room. Knowing how important the team dynamics are to Benny (attitude and leadership), I feel that leaving these two unprotected is something he might seriously consider.
With that said, my gut is that Davies isn’t likely to be protected and that Bosko is on the edge due to his questionable importance to the team, questionable chemistry with De Ro, questionable recovery (you never know), and high salary. Instead of Davies, I think Tino should and will be protected. Bosko’s slot is more of a toss up between him, Woolard, and Korb (we need the defensive depth). Otherwise, I fully agree with protecting Wolff, Simms, Willis, and Brettschneider as the other 4 of the debatable 6 based on importance to the team depth (all of them are important) and leadership (Wolff and Simms).
Agree on Davies to a certain extent; disagree on Boskovic
I will say that I think the “Davies has no chemistry with De Ro” thing is overblown. Davies was in bad form from the Chivas game onward; chemistry was a factor, but a small one in my book. I don’t think Davies would have done much with any playmaker given the way he was playing.
That said, I do agree that he is probably a distraction in some ways. On the other hand, most of the players – especially the guys in their early or mid 20s – seem to be friends with Davies off the field. If a guy is a problem in the locker room, you probably aren’t trying to hang out with him when practice is over. The press that Davies brings is probably a distraction, but I don’t think Davies has caused too many problems for the players themselves. The coaching staff might disagree, though Benny has been mostly positive about Davies and has taken a very reasonable perspective (essentially, that even playing professionally at all is an amazing feat and that given where he was coming from, Davies had a fantastic 2011).
On Boskovic, obviously there’s no hard evidence of him and De Ro working together. However, Boskovic in 2010 looked like a guy that wants to function as part of a strong unit rather than be the star of the show. In his ideal setting, he has the playmaker’s role, but he doesn’t totally dominate his team. He’s less David Ferreira and more Javier Morales in that regard. He also combined pretty well with Pablo Hernandez, who dropped off the front line often (as De Ro would if played up top). I’ll be the first to admit that player chemistry is alchemy rather than science, but I have the feeling that they’d work together just fine.
As for Boskovic’s locker room presence…we’re talking about the same guy who was just flown in by Montenegro to be around because of his importance to the team’s spirit. He’s vice-captain for a national team. United has also praised him throughout the season for his work in rehab, and made it clear that they look forward to him returning to the field. In other words, there is plenty of evidence that he’s a positive, important presence in the DC locker room.
Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14 | KEEP UNITED IN DC
by ChestRockwell on Nov 17, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Boskovic-Hernandez
That was indeed a promising combination, the first time the whole dismal season we were even remotely threatening on the attack. You have to figure it bodes well for the Bosko-DeRo combination, as Hernandez was no DeRo.
I’m somewhere between Shatzer and Rockwell.
I’ll protect “The Obvious 5” (we should get them to start a band) plus Wolff, Willis, Korb, Brettschneider, Quaranta, and Davies.
I see Simms as being expendable with the rise of Perry Kitchen. I agree with Martin that Montreal isn’t going to gamble on Bosko. I feel like Woolard and Burch are similar enough that if one gets picked up by Montreal, we’ll have the other to fall back on. And Da Luz and King are journeymen, and so they shall remain.
Go, fight, and win.
So who steps in for Kitchen during the Olympics?
Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14 | KEEP UNITED IN DC
by ChestRockwell on Nov 16, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Goff’s List from the back on out:
Protected:
Willis (for the Olympics/Hamid’s absence)
Jakovic
McDonald
Woolard
Korb
DeRo
Kitchen
Pontius
Quaranta
King
Wolff
On some of the unprotected:
Boskovic (Salary, coming off injury, mid-season expiring contract)
Simms (Kitchen’s possible emergence in the role, Simms’ contract)
Davies (expiring loan, and on that he thinks Sochaux will agree to another loan, helping to facilitate a trade)
I’d probably swap out Brettschneider for Quaranta, but otherwise generally who I’d pick.
"My favorite fan base in D.C. Is United's. Period. The end." - Steinberg
Keep United in DC. A Fair Deal at RFK, and a Pathway to a Stadium for a team loyal to the city.
Goff's take on debatable protected players
“Daniel Woolard: Started 26 league matches primarily at left back, understated and reliable. Protected.
Chris Korb: Rookie right back made frequent appearances early in the season, slipped into a midseason rut, then rediscovered his form. With Zayner’s return unclear, Korb gains importance. Protected.
Santino Quaranta: Didn’t put up the numbers expected of an experienced attacking player (one goal, four assists in 21 games), but remains a lively, ambitious player. Protected.
Stephen King: Versatile midfielder, smart and steady, signed a new contract late in the year. Not a starter but good to have around. Protected."
Goff's list
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see this list, or something similar to it. (Again, King/Woolard/Brettschneider/Willis are all roughly equal. They’re all projected to make the team next year if not taken, but losing one wouldn’t set us back too far)
The big question here is Simms, and I think Goff is onto something when referencing his contract. I personally would protect him as depth, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this front office leave him exposed, just like they did with Brian Carroll in the past when he got passed on the depth chart at the same CDM position.
I don’t like this possibility, but I think its very realistic. I don’t like it because even if United doesn’t see Simms wearing black next year, I at least want us to be able to control his rights.
With only 10 rounds in the expansion draft, I still think the highest probability is that we don’t lose anyone. But the second highest probability is that we lose Simms.
Managing Editor for BlackAndRedUnited.com. Weekly Columnist for SB Nation D.C..
by Martin Shatzer on Nov 17, 2011 9:18 AM EST up reply actions
Goff will probably be 80% right or better given how plugged in he is
I will be pretty unhappy if that’s our list, but Goff usually knows enough of the background stuff to be more right than wrong on things like this.
I think it would be a mistake to protect Korb, who is not ready to start in MLS. He’s fine as depth, but he’s also replaceable. It would be a big mistake to protect him and leave Brettschneider unprotected, especially given that we will already likely be looking for a replacement for Davies and a replacement for Ngwenya. Montreal is much more likely to take Brettschneider than Korb, and Brettschneider would also be harder to replace.
I also can’t see how protecting Willis to ensure cover for the Olympics doesn’t also mean protecting Simms for the exact same thing. This team needs a strong defensive midfield presence, and if we lose Simms, we either go sign another one or deal with a) Kurt Morsink getting like 7-12 starts on the year or b) asking King to play a role he has little experience at. If we’re making Olympic considerations, we have to protect Simms, even with his being expensive for a second-choice player.
With that list, I’d say we would definitely lose someone (Simms or Brettschneider), and that means we did a bad job. Surviving the expansion draft without losing any players or making any dumb trades is the goal (fleecing someone else in the tiny trading window is the dream scenario, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves). Giving up a player with real value for nothing is roughly like missing the playoffs in 2009 or 2010. Qualify it however you want, it will mean we lost.
Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14 | KEEP UNITED IN DC
by ChestRockwell on Nov 17, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
If he's 80 percent right, . . .
. . . that means he’s off by two, which I hope is Bosko and Simms instead of Korb and Woolard.
and again
“Josh Wolff: At age 34, the captain contributed five goals and seven assists and provided guidance to a young squad. Protected.”
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Black And Red United
Related FanShots on Black And Red United
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
