MLS Playoff Scenarios For D.C. United

by Martin Shatzer on Oct 16, 2011 9:20 PM EDT

I'm not over it yet. And I don't fault you if you're not either. A win on Saturday night against the Chicago Fire would have put D.C. United in almost absolute control of the final playoff spot. With 41 points, United would be just behind the New York Red Bulls with an additional game to play.

But we didn't win. So with that behind us, you can grovel in disappointment all you want, but for information's sake, let's at least do ourselves the solid of reviewing the MLS playoff scenarios that would get United into the playoffs.

Here's what we know for sure:

UNITED MUST WIN BOTH GAMES.

We've thrown the term "must-win game" around before. This time we mean it. A loss and we're out. A tie and we're out.

Even with a full six points though against the Portland Timbers (who are themselves fighting for the same playoff spot) and Sporting Kansas City (who sure would like to pass the Philadelphia Union for first place in the Eastern Conference), D.C. would still need some help.

The only realistic scenario would involve winning twice, and watching the Union beat the Red Bulls on Thursday night in Harrison. This scenario has United passing NYRB for 10th place, and playing either Real Salt Lake or FC Dallas in the wild card round. If the Union win and we win both games, nothing else matters. We're in.

There is another scenario though, as off-the-wall as it may seem. Two wins would give United 44 points. A tie between New York and Philadelphia would give the Red Bulls 44 points as well. And since we split the season series with the Red Bulls, the final playoff spot would come down to goal differential.

D.C. is currently -2. New York is currently +5.

So if the Red Bulls tie the Union and United wins its two games by a differential of seven goals (i.e. 3-0 and 5-1 or something), we're in.

#DCUnotdoneyet?

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Comments

Based on recent trends...

I’m gonna have to say that the chances of Scenario #2 happening are even slimmer than the chances of giving up two goals in less than two minutes were on Saturday

by carmines757 on Oct 17, 2011 1:09 AM EDT reply actions

Believe.

I hope like hell we’re the “No One Believes In Us” team. I hope.

by kdiff813 on Oct 17, 2011 2:26 AM EDT reply actions

They Are

Unfortunately, I am pretty sure that “No One” includes the players, who haven’t seemed to believe in themselves for a majority of the season

by BrunoReturns on Oct 17, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't do it.

I just don’t have the emotional energy to keep the flicker of hope alive any longer. I can’t think about ‘what if’ scenarios or probabilities. I’ve done it all season, and I’ve gotten torched by the mediocrity that is our team. I’m going to watch the last two games of the season, and I’ll root for the Black and Red like I always do, but I just can’t think or hope for the playoffs any longer. Three minutes of stoppage time nightmares are enough. Let’s go United. Let’s start getting excited for next year.

by DCUFaninMissouri on Oct 17, 2011 3:37 PM EDT reply actions

Scenario #1 is very plausible

I can definitely see NY dropping the game against Philly. It’s the “United has to win both of its remaining games” that makes it unlikely. I haven’t lost any more hope than the small flicker I’ve had since the Philly loss. I don’t know why, but after that loss I became really pessimistic about this team. Not that Philly shouldn’t have beat us, but it was like that was our moment to step up and make a statement, and we didn’t do it. But even with that let down (and 3 more in a row), the faint flicker of hope somehow remains.

by madavis on Oct 17, 2011 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

I am expecting the most painful possible outcome

That is:

1. DC beats Portland, and looks better than they have in weeks in the process.
2. Philly beats NY Thursday.
3. DC blows it against the Sporks Saturday in some mind-boggling fashion that I can’t even bring myself to imagine.

However, I also expected this team to get into the playoffs by now as of 5 weeks ago, so what the hell do I know?

Writer on SB Nation's DC United blog Black and Red United | @ChestRockwell14

by ChestRockwell on Oct 18, 2011 7:20 PM EDT reply actions